Will Catalonia second Scotland?

Now the attention of many countries focuses on events in Scotland, where on Thursday held a referendum in which the Scots must decide whether to separate them from the UK or stay in its composition. This referendum is legally binding, and if the Scots vote for independence, after a while, you need to settle the details, Scotland will become a separate state.

More complex and dangerous situation is unfolding in Spain, where Catalonia, whose capital is Barcelona, ​​plans to hold a referendum on November 9 and decide whether to separate from Spain. However, this referendum is not legally binding, and the Spanish government does not intend to take into account the results, saying that the vote itself is illegal.

Why are so many people in Catalonia support independence?

There are four main reasons.

Dushanbe summit kicks off the SCO member states. In Germany, publish inflation data for August. In Catalonia will host a rally for independence from Spain.

Firstly, it failed attempt to negotiate a new constitutional arrangement of Catalonia and Spain in the 2000s. In 2006 the Catalan Parliament approved a new charter, and Zapatero, who was then prime minister, has promised to support him at the national level. But the People’s Party (Spanish conservatives), which at that time was in the opposition, immediately challenged the new law in the Constitutional Court, which eventually in 2010, voted against it. As a result, in Barcelona staged a massive protest march.

Second, the economic crisis. Around the same period of time in Spain there was a crisis, and continues to this day. There are arguments both for and against the independent Catalonia, and there is much debate about how the future will be cloudless independent Catalonia, and how successful the rest of Spain, but at the moment, many supporters of independence are firmly convinced that they will be able to build a successful economy and will be in a better position, given the fact that since 2008, Madrid holds extremely unfortunate financial policy.

Third, a relatively strong national identity Catalans compared to the rest of Spain.

In the end, the tough stance of the People’s Party in relation to the independence movement. Rajoy government from the outset opposed, and not only in the event that Catalonia will vote for independence and against the voting itself, regardless of the results, since, according to the government, a vote was illegal. This is enough to convince anyone who questions the need for a referendum.

What will happen on November 9?

It depends on what happens between now and November 9th. According to the First Minister of Catalonia Mas and his allies in parliament Hunkerasa, polling stations will be opened, the ballot boxes will be registered and will vote on the independence of Catalonia, as promised to the Catalan government. According to Rajoy and the government on 9 November referendum will not take place, since any such vote is illegal, and therefore, any attempt to organize or to hold such a vote would lead to the fact that the organizers – the Catalan government and its supporters – will be charged with a criminal offense for contempt of court, sedition and rebellion.

What happens if the Catalonia vote for independence?

In Spain and Europe will have serious problems, as the position of Madrid was, and remains, in all probability, will be against any vote for independence, as it is unlawful. Catalonia provides 19% of the Spanish GDP, 26% of exports and more than 50% yield of the country to Europe. Catalonia is very important for the Spanish economy, and Spain is important for the European economy.

Therefore, it is very important to leave the Catalans in Europe, despite the fact that from the point of view of the Spanish government, it is illegal.

And if the Catalans still dare to face the issue of illegal voting, if Rajoy will not send the police to arrest them if the vote does take place and the results will show the desire of the majority to become an independent state, there is a myriad of problems that will lead to chaos, so as the position of Madrid remains the same, but by the Catalans will hear appeals of a unilateral declaration of independence. How did manage to restrain the government Raho independence movement for so long? Only strictly stating that government against voting, each time when this issue arose, and for the past two years, this happened quite often.

And the Government was not just against the independence and against any attempt to vote on independence. They adhere to the constitutional interpretation of the issue. They have been criticized for their position, which is too tied to the law and not enough politically flexible, as well as for the fact that they are too scorn the supporters of the independence of Catalonia, but it is unlikely that the government’s position may change.

Do the Catalans that they are being treated unfairly?

They think so. And the government opposite. As in the case of Scotland, their pros and cons based on economic indicators, however, and she and the other side of the lead completely different data, depending on whether they act for or against independence.

If Rajoy refuses to concede independence supporters, what else they have leverage over Spain?

Three of them: the people, the economy and the 21st century.

Firstly, many supporters of independence (1-2 million) to the streets of Catalonia during the march for independence. If they all appear at the polls on November 9, it is unlikely to be enough police to stop them.

Second, the economic arguments – a double-edged sword: yes, probably will be a short-term economic chaos after any attempt to secede, but just try to get away when the Catalans with 19% of the Spanish GDP and 26% of exports right now, a weakened Spanish economy begins to fall sharply, and this is a very negative impact on the whole of Europe.

Third, it is 21, and not 19, with horses and swords, and not 1930, the Communists and the Nazis, leading to the preparation of the Civil War. Supporters of independence of Catalonia claim that there will be no violent revolution, so that you have enough courage to send Madrid police, the army and tanks to Barcelona and stop voting? And that’s about it now and say in Madrid. Many Spanish Conservatives also doubt that Rajoy can really prevent a vote, despite the fact that it has the legal right and power to try to do it if he wants. Theoretically, he could have ordered the arrest of Mas Hunkerasa and also an end to the activities of the regional government. That is what happened in 1934, when the Catalans tried to vote. On the streets of Barcelona appeared artillery and machine guns, 46 people were killed, and the first minister of Catalonia, Companys, was sentenced to 30 years for sedition.

How are the supporters of independence to the euro area and the European Union?

They are very knowledgeable about the activities of the European Union, and are well aware of the need to publish the developments in the region, the whole world know their point of view. They believe that it is necessary to publish all in English, to the international press and the government were able to read it. Every year they make a large-scale PR stunt during the National Day of Catalonia, to emphasize its commitment to the independence, last year it was a “human chain for independence”, this year – a huge letter ‘V’, meaning “Vote» (voto) and “victory» (victoria) in the center of Barcelona.

They consider Europe and the international community as a way to legitimize their claims outside the Spanish legislation, as well as a way to realization of the principle that “democracy and people’s opinion” is more important than constitutional law.

They would also like to see an independent Catalonia became a member of the European Union and the euro zone, despite the fact that European countries have denied this possibility.